Rare-earth permanent magnet industry in-depth report: the swan spreads its wings, the will in a million miles

　　Electricity, kinetic energy conversion preferred rare earth permanent magnet electrical energy conversion is the most kinetic energy, efficient electric energy conversion requires permanent magnet synchronous motor. In terms of motor efficiency, the conversion efficiency of rare earth permanent magnet motor is about 30% higher than that of induction motor (especially under low load), high performance NdFeB is the core material of permanent magnet motor, and its application is always the same.

　　The supply pattern of high end NdFeB is relatively stable due to the restriction of export patent, meanwhile, Chinese enterprises have the advantage of rare earth raw material cost and more sufficient capacity reserve, so they will benefit more from the dividend brought by the rapid growth of high end NdFeB demand and expand the global market share in the future.

　　Traditional demand is bottoming out, wind power and air conditioner are the highlights

　　The traditional demand of high-end NdFeB suffered from the impact of 2011 rare earth price surge, and the consumption declined in 2012 (-10%), but it has bottomed out and returned to positive growth in 13 (1%). In the future, from the perspective of downstream applications, except for hard disk VCM, the demand of other fields will grow steadily, among which, the accelerated recovery of wind power demand and the restart of inverter air conditioner demand need special attention, and the overall traditional demand of high performance NdFeB will rise steadily.

　　Emerging applications have great potential, focusing on automotive electronics and robotics

　　There are many emerging applications for high performance NdFeB, among which automotive electronics and robotics have the greatest potential. The demand for high performance NdFeB will keep growing rapidly as the automobile will become a large personal mobile internet terminal with the deepening of electronic process. It is expected that by 2016, the demand for high performance NdFeB will exceed 24,000 tons in the four fields of automotive rare earth permanent magnet (micro motor, EPS, intelligent start-stop and electric vehicle drive motor). In addition, with the development of global robot industry, it is expected that the demand for high performance NdFeB in industrial robots, professional service robots and home service robots will exceed 9,000 tons by 2016.

　　The industry pattern will be divided into "two or eight", the strongest will be stronger

　　We believe that the low-end NdFeB products will face fierce competition due to overcapacity and slowdown of demand growth; while the high-end field will benefit from the development of emerging industries and the demand will keep growing rapidly; meanwhile, due to patent protection, 11 companies will share more than 60% of the industry output value in the future. Industry pattern will appear "two or eight" differentiation, profits to the high-end areas of concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises more obvious. We recommend the leading companies to benefit from the reversal of wind power demand and expand the overseas market through the new patent; secondly, due to the expiration of MQ magnetic powder patent, the bonded NdFeB is expected to replace ferrite in the field of automobile and air conditioner through the advantage of cost performance, Galaxy magnet is recommended; meanwhile, we can pay attention to Ningbo Yunsheng and Zhongke Sanhuan.

　　Risk tips

　　Downstream demand recovery is lower than expected; rare earth raw material price fluctuation.